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Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative

The short answer: The turbulence is Trump, especially on trade; but the deeper shift is structural. Only a few voices in the financial and technology industries still advocate deep cooperation. Related Content China Principles for managing U.

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First, the answer lies in the evolution of strategy between Jinping and his predecessor Hu Jintao. Trump has been turbulent; Xi has been aggressive, perhaps reckless. Despite the growth of anti-China sentiment coming from the United States, outright bilateral conflict is not preordained. But relations are getting worse, and could rapidly deteriorate further.

It was a move within the limits of what is feasible under U. This is likely to be a cease fire, not a peace agreement. The era of U. It has been translating its recent wealth into military power. While the United States and China had been allies during World War II against the Japanese, once the communists took control of the country, the two broke off relations. Since re-establishing relations with Japan during the s, China remained focused domestically, but has since become more assertive globally. In addition to these evolving security threats, China has continued to invest heavily into diversifying and growing its nuclear weapon and ballistic missile programs—which poses a threat to the United States and its allies should conflict ever erupt.

To counter the threat of China militarily, the United States must continue to look for ways to strengthen our Asian alliances, including through the provision of ongoing economic and military assistance to these countries. This assistance must be focused on deterring Chinese aggression and strengthening the ability of the US to respond if needed.

The United States must also ensure the US military and diplomats have the needed resources and capabilities they need to deter and rapidly respond to Chinese aggression against the United States and its allies. But if we wish to truly continue to play a dominant role in Asia and around the globe, the US must also get its house in order.

Beyond the challenges that China poses in Asia, it is using its cyber capabilities to challenge the United States globally. China aggressively uses its cyber capabilities to steal not only intellectual property that belongs to US companies, but also US military and intelligence secrets. In , China hacked the Office of Personnel and Management, stealing the private information of 22 million US citizens. But cyber is also one area where the two countries may have succeeded in setting up some rules of the road. In , President Obama and Chairman Xi Jinping agreed that their governments would not knowingly conduct cyber espionage against each other—though not government espionage—which led to a dramatic drop in cyber espionage the following year.

This shows that by cooperating, we may protect our interests while avoiding costly escalation. Nevertheless, the United States remains woefully unprepared for cyberattacks that target critical infrastructure—including election machinery. An important law enforcement component of the US response to these cyber-attacks must also be to pursue criminal cases against Chinese cyber attackers to deter future attacks.

The United States must balance its competition with China with cooperation in areas of mutual concern to both countries. One of those areas of mutual concern are negotiations with North Korea over its nuclear weapons program. As the PCA award content has also been received favorably by Japan, convergence on interests over the issue between New Delhi and Tokyo is clearly manifest.

Current India—China uneasy bilateral relationship, amid this new geopolitical environment in Southeast Asian subcomplex, continues to reflect a pattern of both cooperation and competition.

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Security Council Dasguptal Other areas of tension include cyber piracy ZeeNews , China's close relationship with neighbouring Myanmar and with rival Pakistan where the China Pakistan Economic Corridor, a rail and road connectivity project to Europe, will start in the near future , the uncertain nature of the brand new Chinese naval base in Djibouti and proposals to build another in Salalah, Oman, the Chinese refusal in to accept India into the Nuclear Supply Group, as well as recent Chinese approaches and economic deals with some IOR countries as part of its own Maritime Silk Route Initiative.

The term was coined in by Booz Allen Hamilton, a consulting firm, which identified a pattern of Chinese naval presence throughout the IOR. At the South Asian RSC, particularly relevant has become for India the Chinese presence into the IOR, where Beijing has been deepening economic presence, trade and investment, as well as naval activities. Now, Chinese naval patrols have already demonstrated blue water capabilities for extended periods, probably in anticipation for future deployments of surface vessels and new Shang and Jiang class submarines in IOR waters Ghosh However, the limits of the adversarial nature of this relationship are set in the economic realm, mainly through interdependence.

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Among other relevant incentives in the India—China relationship are common interests in developing regional economic integration—such as concluding the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and shared interests in strengthening the Asian community building process mainly through the EAS; common interest in global governance and multilateralism, including climate change Mehrotra : 82 , and finally, common desire to strengthen the international financial order through alternative, yet complementary new financial mechanisms such as the AIIB, BRICS's New Development Bank and the Contingence Reserve Arrangement.

It is interesting to note, however, that recent actions come at roughly the same time as China is pushing its maritime consolidation in the South China Sea, including the upgrade of islands in the Spratlys, and the dismissal of the PCA ruling. It is most likely due to this apparent contradiction and resulting suspicion from India over Chinese intentions that the securitization speech of the freedom of navigation has entered the top of the Indian foreign policy and maritime security agenda.

India's aspiration to become a major power in the East Asian RSC, as embedded in its AEP, no doubt needs a correlation with an upgrading in its naval strategy to fully address the importance of the South China Sea for its economic, mainly energy security. This convergence is evident in terms of louder calls over guarantees of freedom of navigation and overflight in the area, as well as respect for the rule of law, mainly stipulations enshrined in the Law of the Sea and decisions emanated from the PCA ruling.

Security threats there, spanning from terrorism to border instability, and in the IOR, including the recent Chinese economic and naval advances continues to dominate India's policy circles' mindset, as Singh recognizes.

Keynote Address - Cooperation from Strength: The United States, China and the South China Sea

The IOR will continue to be of paramount importance in comparison with an upgraded Indian presence, either civil or naval, into the South China Sea. In terms of naval strategy, India should soon decide whether to project full naval power in the South China Sea; so far, it has been hesitant to participate in FONOPs operations like the United States has done seven times since three under President Trump administration.

The answer might not be as pessimistic as it seems, as in the years to come, India is likely to continue searching for deeper security cooperation scheme with Southeast Asian countries, but largely in areas of nontraditional security, such as Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief HADR, far from engaging in FONOPs. And yet, projection of influence and securing economic interest in the South China Sea does demand a clear strategic vision.

It is a question of strategic thinking in the long run. A pressing question, however, is how to engage China in the short and medium term. As for involving Beijing in the creation of a stable security architecture in the Southeast Asian subcomplex and the East Asian RSC at large, India seems already reflecting in the urgent need for mechanisms that should ultimately guarantee freedom of navigation, the strengthening of international regimes such as UNCLOS, as well as resource exploration.

At the economic and political level, the India—China relationship still contains, as pointed out in the above lines, relevant incentives leading to cooperation, notably the increase in bilateral trade and the common interest to provide common public goods such as strong, innovative international financial institutions New Development Bank, Contingence Reserve Arrangement and AIIB. In terms of maximizing India's security, both border security and combating terrorism, issues that does demand cooperation from Beijing, are likely to dominate the security priorities of India in the foreseeable future.

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Original Article Open Access. Ulises Granados Corresponding Author E-mail address: ulises. Tools Request permission Export citation Add to favorites Track citation.

U.S. South China Sea policy after the ruling: Opportunities and challenges

Share Give access Share full text access. Share full text access. Please review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article. Figure 2 Open in figure viewer PowerPoint. Figure 3 Open in figure viewer PowerPoint. Figure 4 Open in figure viewer PowerPoint. India's trade with China. Figure 5 Open in figure viewer PowerPoint.