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Price and David L. Steadman Ralpb W Hood. By now, a substantial reservoir of literature has emerged, assessing the profound transformation ofTurkish foreign policy from different angles under the leadership of Ahmet Davutoglu, Turkey's Minister of Foreign Affairs. Likewise, Turkey's singular experiment, since the s, with the first and second-generation models of neoliberalism has shaped the country's transition from an inward-looking import-substitution-cum-planning regime to an export-oriented open economy.

This experience has also triggered the accumulation of a comprehensive collection of writings evaluating various aspects of ongoing structural transformation. Academics and experts with a more liberal economic orientation and the IMF-led Bretton Woods circles praised Turkey's early performance as "a textbook example of successful liberalization;' while relatively left-leaning authors warned against the fragile institutional foundations, weak regulatory-monitoring mechanisms, and insufficient social safeguards embedded in the Turkish model.

However, Turkey's post economic performance characterized by a series of regulatory reforms that strengthened oversight-on public finance and the financial sector, robust growth dynamics, and resilience to external shocks attracted the attention of international investors to this "emerging market" and drew widespread praise from the majority of economic observers. Partly as a result of the resilience ofrigid disciplinary boundaries between political science and international relations, and economics and development studies, and partly due to the tendencies of independent observers to use supportive material.

This special issue 1m of Insight Turkey aims to kick-start interdisciplinary studies that could contribute to the filling of that vacuum. By mainly adopting an international political economy IPE perspective, this special issue on the " Political Economy of Turkish Foreign Policy" brings together a provocative collection of articles written by political scientists, international relations experts, and economists exploring the economic underpinnings and repercussions of the "new Turkish foreign policy:' T he 'New Turkey' and American-Turkish Relations!

To this end, articles in this issue cover the profound developments witnessed in the global political economy and particularly Turkey's regional environment in the last decade; identify the foremost economic consequences of Turkey'smultidimensional foreign policy; probe into tbe objective validity F. I ficulties and strains. The U. Strains in U. The us. The crisis of emerging markets, which incidentally include Turkey.

The profound transformation in the priorities of Turkey's foreign policy and macroeconomic strategy should be read in view of tectonic shifts in the world system and dynamic responses given to them, rather than ideological precepts and unwarranted assumptions about the true intensions ofleading political actors. IVI n recent years, us. It represents an attempt to broaden and diversify Turkey's foreign policy not change its basic orientation and reduce its dependence on Washington. The Turkish invasion of Cyprus in precipitated an even more severe crisis.

In response to the invasion, the US. Congress imposed an arms embargo on Turkey, which resulted in a sharp deterioration of U. While these crises put severe strains on the US. In the face of an overriding Soviet threat, both sides felt the need to maintain strong security ties and not allow these disagreements to fundamentally weaken the security partnership. They are primarily the result of structuralchanges in Turkey's security environment, particularly since the end of the Cold War. The disappearance of the Soviet threat removed the main rationale behind the US. Ankara sought to exploit this new diplomatic flexibility and room for maneuver by establishing new relationships in these areas.

I , " In addition, with the end ofthe Cold War, the locus ofthreats and challenges to Turkish security shifted. Today, Turkey faces a much more diverse set of security threats and challenges: rising Kurdish nationalism and separatism; sectarian violence in Iraq, which could spill over and draw in outside powers; the possible emergence of a nuclear-armed Iran on Turkey's doorstep; and a weak, fragmented Lebanon dominated by radical groups with close ties to Iran and Syria.

Most of these threats and challenges are on or close to Turkey's southern border. As a result, Turkish strategic attention is today focused much more on the Middle East than it had been in the past because this is where the key threats and challenges to Turkish security are located. In addition, Turkey's economic interests have shifted towards the east and south. Rather Turkey's recent foreign policy activism is aimed at overcoming the anomalies of the Cold War. It represents an attempt to broaden and diversify Turkey's foreign policy, not change its basic orientation. Part of Turkey's recent foreign policy activism has had its roots in the growing frustration and disenchantment with Europe and the problems encountered in its ED membership bid This is not to argue that the current ruling Justice and Development Party's AKP Islamic roots have had no influence on Turkish policy, but they have not been the main drivingforce behind Turkish policy.

Ankara's foreign policy primarily represents an attempt to adapt to Turkey'snew strategic environment and exploit the new flexibility and freedom of maneuver afforded by the end of the Cold War. Turkey's new foreign policy outrea. In the first few years after the collapse ofthe Soviet Union, Turkey, under the dynamic leadership ofPresident Turgut Ozal, launched a concerted campaign to expand relations with the newly independent states of Central Asia.

Ankara opened up cultural centers in the Central Asian republics, established extensive scholarship programs to allow students from these countries to study in Turkey, and expanded its television broadcasts in an effort to extend its cultural influence in the region. The AKP has. Under the AKP, Turkey has focused largely on intensifying ties with the energy-rich countries of the Caspian basin, especially Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan. Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, which have few energy resources, have received far less attention.

Similarly, the significant improvement in Turkey's relations with Russia in the last decade has little to do with religion or the AKP's Islamic roots. As in Central Asia, the rapprochement with Moscow has been driven primarily by economics' particularly energy concerns.

Russia is Turkey's largest trading partner and its largest supplier of natural gas. Moscow supplies nearly 65 percent of Turkey's natural gas imports and 25 percent of its crude oil imports. Part of Turkey's recent foreign policy activism has had its roots in the growing frustration and disenchantment with Europe and the problems encountered in its EU membership bid. As Turkey's problems with Europe have increased, Turkey has sought to broaden its ties elsewhere, especially with those areas and countries where it has long-standing historical and cultural ties.

American policymakers are dealing with a "New Turkey" -one which is politically more self-confident and more willing to assert its own national interests Domestic factors have also had an impact on Turkey's foreign policy. The democratization of Turkish politics in the last several decades has changed the dynamics of Turkish foreign policymaking by reducing the influence of the military in Turkish politics. The military remains an influential force in Turkish politics, but it does not have the political clout it used to enjoy a decade ago and is subject to much stronger civilian control.

Today, there is a vibrant and diffuse foreign policy debate, with a diversity of actors striving to influence it. This has made foreign policy much more difficult for the traditional Kemalist elite to control, and has also made U. The disappearance of the Soviet threat has reduced Turkey's dependence on the United States for its security and deprived the U. At the same time, Turkey's geographic role and interests have expanded. Turkey now has interests and stakes in various regions it did not have two decades ago.

It is thus less willing to automatically follow the U. S:slead on many issues, especially when U. This does not mean that Turkey is turning its back on the West or the United States. Turkey still wants-and needs-strong ties with the United States. But the terms of engagement have changed. Ankara is a rising regional power and is no longer content to play the role ofjunior partner; American policymakers are dealing with a "New Turkey" -one which is politically more self-confident and more willing to assert its own national interests.

Ii i Turkey has the 17'" largest economy in the world and the sixth largest in Europe and has seen an average annual growth rate ofnearly 7 percent in the last five 41 The 'New Turkey' and American-Turkish Relations years. While Turkey's high growth rates may not be sustainable over the long haul, as Ian Lesser has noted, a more assertive and independent Turkish policy line is likely to persist and Western governments, including the United States, will need to learn how to live with it. Both the US:s and Turkey's policies have lost their agreed sense of common strategic purpose The problem is not that Turkey's policy has become "Islamisized" The real danger is "strategic drift" and an increasing decoupling of U.

With the collapse of the Soviet Union, both the U. S:s and Turkey's policies have lost their agreed sense of common strategic purpose. The result has been an increasing decoupling of U. The AKP's Islamic roots have reinforced this trend but they have not caused it. The problem has been aggravated by a sense of disappointment on the U. President Obama has invested a lot in the relationship with Turkey, which he argues is "more important than ever'" The administration has stepped up military cooperation and assistance to Turkey in its struggle against the PKK-Turkey's number one security problem and a source of tension with the Bush Administration.

It has also strongly backed Turkey's bid for EU membership, the rapprochement with Armenia, and the Erdogan government's "Kurdish Opening" -three other important Turkish policy priorities. But many U. While cooperation with Turkey has been effective in many areas such as Iraq and the Balkans, on critical security issues of great concern to the United States, such as the imposition of UN sanctions against Iran, Turkey has opposed the U. This has led many U. These strains have been given new impetus by the publication by WikiLeaks of classified cables from the U. However, while embarrassing, the leaked cables represent a diplomatic tempest in a teapot and not a serious crisis in bilateral relations.

The most controversial cables were written by mid-level diplomats during the Bush Administration at a time when strains in U. Davutoglu has gone out of his way to downplay the Significance of the leaks, stressing the close [5 F. Turkish officials argue that Turkey's close ties to Tehran enable it to influence the Iranian leadership behind the scenes. The deterioration in TurkishIsraeli relations adds a new element of instability to the already highly volatile situation in the Middle East and could have a spill-over effect on u.

Turkish relations However, Turkey's emphasis on diplomatic engagement with Tehran has produced few visible concrete results so far. Iran has agreed to reopen negotiations led by Lady Ashton nnder the P5 plus 1 formula. But the severity ofthe sanctions has been main factor that has induced Iran to return to the negotiating table, not sweet talk from Ankara. It thus makes sense for Ankara to keep diplomatic channels open to Tehran. However, such a mediating role is likely to have a serious chance of success only when Tehran concludes that its current policy of evasion and obfuscation has failed and become a serious obstacle to its economic and political stability and development.

Prudently applied, the sanctions can help to hasten that day. Realism and a little "tough love" on Ankara's part would help as well.

  1. New Constitution, 'New Turkey'?.
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In addition, Ankara needs to take steps to repair relations with Washington. Turkey's opposition to the imposition ofUN sanctions against Iran has weakened support for Turkey in the U. Congress and raised questions in the minds of many congressmen about Turkey's reliability as an ally. Ifthese differences persist, they could complicate Turkey's ability to obtain congressional support for important weapons procurement requests in the future. The attempt by both sides to downplay the impact ofthe Wikileaks cables does not mean that U.

Several issues are likely to pose important policy challenges. The most important challenge is posed by differences over Iran's nuclear program. The acquisition of nuclear weapons by Iran could spark a destabilizing nuclear arms race in the Middle East. It could also provoke a divisive internal debate in Turkey about whether Ankara should seek to acquire its own nuclear arsenal. The sharp downturn in Turkey's relations with Israel poses a second important area of discord with Washington. The deterioration in Turkish-Israeli relations adds a new element of instability to the already highly volatile situation in the Middle East and could have a spill-over effect on U.

While Turkish-Israeli relations are unlikely to regain the warmth or strategic importance they enjoyed in the late s, a reduction in current tensions with Tel Aviv would not only enhance security in the Middle East but would also remove an important irritant in U. The differences between Ankara and Washington over Iran are primarily over tactics. House Foreign Affairs Committee passed the resolution by a one-vote 61 17 F. While the Obama Administration subsequently persuaded the House leadership not to bring the resolution to a floor vote.

As a result of changes precipitated by the mid-term elections last November the Republicans will control the House in the new Congress.. This normally would work to Turkey's advantage. The Republicans have traditionally given strategic considerations priority in the debate over the resolution. However, many Republicans such as Ileana Ros -Lehtinen, the new chairman ofthe House Foreign Affairs Committee, are staunch supporters of Israel and have been angered by Erdogan's strident attacks on Israel and Turkey'svote in the UN against imposing sanctions on Iran.

Thus Turkey cannot automatically count on strong Republican support to the same degree it could in the past. Lehtinen's voting record on the Genocide resolution, for instance, is mixed: she voted against it and but voted for it from In addition, Turkey could take several actions of its own which could weaken congressional support for the resolution.

The first would be to show greater political support for Western sanctions toward Iran, especially those US. As noted earlier, Turkey's opposition to the imposition of sanctions in the UN. If Turkey were to support some of the unilateral US. The 'New Thrkey' and American-Turkish Relations new conditions regarding deployment, this could provoke new strains in relations with Washington as well as with many of Turkey's European allies. Finally; the U.

S:s use of Turkish bases, particularly the Incirlik air base, is likely to remain a sensitive issue in bilateral relations. Turkey has allowed the United States to use Incirlik to transport men and materiel to Iraq and Afghanistan. However, given its expanded interests in the Middle East, Turkey is likely to be very cautious about allowing the United States to use it bases to conduct combat operations in the Middle East unless these operations are clearly perceived by Turkish leaders to be in Turkey's national interest.

As a result, the United States cannot automatically assume it will have access to Turkish facilities in future Middle East contingencies. Stephen Larrabee, Troubled Partnership. The second action that could help would be for Ankara to restart the dialogue on normalization of relations with Armenia broken off in April This would enhance Turkey's image in Congress and help defuse support for the genocide resolution.

Such a move, however, would need to be carefully coordinated with Azerbaijan in order to avoid stimulating new fears in Baku that Turkey was putting its interest in detente with Armenia above its friendship with Azerbaijan Turkey's approach to missile defense will also have an important impact on bilateral relations. Missile defense is one ofthe Obama Administration's top priorities and has strong Republican backing. But many details still remain to be worked out regarding the deployment of the missile defense system.

Individual papers, however, will not be accepted unless they are relevant to the overall theme, relevant to the research network sessions, or integral to a panel proposed on a different topic. Of particular interest are papers that present empirical findings of fieldwork, Manuscripts to be considered for publication should be submitted via e-mail Each manuscript should be no more than words in main text and words in abstract.

All submissions will be blind-refereed. The Gaza flotilla. The cliche question of "who lost Turkey? In the meantime, the looming threat of an Armenian genocide resolution continued to sporadically dominate the bilateral agenda. The perception of an Islamist "axis shift" is real. Popular columnists, such as Tom Friedman from the New York Times, have now joined the cohort of those who share such pessimism. Yet,interestingly such pessimism tends to dissipate in the higher echelons ofAmerican foreign policy.

Part of this interesting phenomenon is related to the simple fact that everything is relative. With high expectations and habits established during the Cold War, they tend to look at Turkey exclusively as a member of the transatlantic alliance and a Western state. Their level of disappointment is, therefore, much stronger when Turkey acts in defiance oftransatlantic and western norms. Similarly, there is a tendency to see any deviation from transatlantic norms as Islamization.

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In the post-Soviet regional and global order, Turkey and the United States no longer share an existential threat perception In the eyes of strategist and high level policy makers with global outlook and portfolios, however, Turkey is doing rather well. Turkey is a success story compared to the rest of the Islamic world. It has a growing economy, a functioning democracy, and a strong government that can provide relatively good governance.

It is a Muslim country, with a secular, democratic, and capitalist system. And despite its recent popularity in the Islamic world, it is still firmly anchored in the transatlantic alliance represented by NATO. In short, compared to all the major problems and multiple crises facing U. Yet, one still needs to explain why Turkish and American national interests no longer always converge in order to understand the pessimism among US officials who closely monitor Turkey. Diverging Agendas and Diverging Perceptions There are two fundamental problems that have exacerbated.

First and foremost is the absence of a common enemy. In the post-Soviet regional and global order, Turkey and the United States no longer share an existential threat perception.

Turkey: Can democracy and Islam go together? - Docu

Despite the identification of rterrorism" as a common threat, terrorism is too generic of a concept. Anti-terrorism doesn't provide a sense of urgency, direction and discipline for a genuinely "strategic partnership" anchored around the need to contain, deter, and defeat a common enemy that threatened both Washington and Ankara with nuclear weapons during the Cold War.

Second, as a byproduct of the post-Soviet order, the center of gravity of the Turkish-American bilateral relationship shifted from Eurasia to the Middie East. At the same time, Americas new threat perception became "rogue states" such as Iran, Iraq, and Syria, which all happened to share borders with Turkey. Yet, as Ambassador Mark Parris has previously argued there is a structu,ralproblem in the way American bureaucracy thinks of Turkey.

Yet, even then, the Turkish military proved very reluctant to fully back the American war effort. Necip Torumtay ended up with the resignation of the latter. In ,12 years after the first potential crisis in TurkishAmerican relations was averted thanks to Ozal's leadership, the second Gulf War proved much more consequential for the future of Turkish-American relations.

The big picture was clear: America was increasingly involved in fighting wars in Turkey's immediate neighborhood. Turkey did not share America's threat perception. In the first Gulf War, it was Turgut Ozal that averted the crisis. In the second Gulf War of Turkey simply decided to stay out. Similar dynamics are in play today, as Washington is asking for Turkey's support against Iran.

Turkey doesn't want to destabilize Iran because it doesn't share America's threat perception. To be sure, Iran is a rival of Turkey, and Ankara doesn't want Iran to acquire nuclear weapons.

Turkey's Energy Security

But there is no shared sense of urgency with Washington or Tel Aviv. In fact, Turkey believes the only way to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear military capacity is to engage it more effectively on the economic and diplomatic fronts. Washington, on the other hand, wants to isolate Iran. This is exactly what happens when two countries no longer share the same threat perception. In the eyes of Turkish decision makers and public opinion, neither Iraq under Saddam Hussein, nor Iran under the Islamic regime and certainly not the close ally of today, Syria, posed an existential threat necessitating a war effort.

In fact, Turkey needed the support, stability and partnership of its Middle Eastern neighbors more than ever. To do so required a regional security partnership with Syria, Iraq, and Iran. All of these neighbors have significant Kurdish minorities and are as determined as Turkey to block Kurdish nationalist aspirations for independence.

If current trends continue, Washington might witness the emergence in Turkey of not necessarily an Islarnist foreign policy but a much more nationalist, independent, self-confident and defiant strategic orientation After , the US appeared to be on the wrong side of this regional equation. The no-fly zone enforced in northern Iraq by the US Air Force created conspiracy theories about American support for Kurdish separatism and independent statehood. This perception went from bad to worse as Kurds became America's best friend in post-Saddam Iraq and began to pursue a maximalist territorial agenda with claims over Kirkuk.

All this proved too much to digest for a Turkish public opinion that had always maintained a heavy dose of fear of disintegration - the Sevres Syndrome - due to Western support for Kurdish and Armenian nationalism. Of course, it did not help that Turkey's own repressive anti-Kurdish military policies in the early s had triggered a regional Kurdish backlash. By the mids a major part of the Turkish army was fighting a Kurdish insurgency in southeastern Anatolia. Therefore, in this post-Cold War context, Ankara and Washington not only failed to share a common threat perception; in the eyes of most Turks, America itself had become the main supporter of the local and regional enemy, Kurdish separatism.

It was hardly surprising that a radical paradigmatic shift was taking place in Turkish-American relation as far as the Turkish public opinion's growing distrust of the United States was concerned. Perhaps most troubling is the state ofTurkish public opinion vis-a-vis the United States. During the Cold War, resentment against the United States was mainly a leftwing phenomenon. Bashing the United States and long run decide to no longer blaming Washington for every domestic pursue an elusive EU issue - from the Kurdish conflict to the membership.

It may even rise ofthe Justice and Development Party question its military alliance AKP - has become a national hobby. Most secularist and Kemalist believe that with the United States there is an American agenda to promote "moderate Islam" in Turkey and a "Turkish model" for the Islamic world.

In addition to President Bush praising Turkey as a model of for the Islamic world, in , then US Secretary of State Colin Powell's reference to Turkey as an "Islamic Republic" strengthened the secularist paranoia and provoked widespread conspiracy theories and criticism in Turkey.

Many within the secularist establishment thought that America was pushing Turkey to play the role of the "good Muslims" against the bad ones in the Arab world, a role that would situate Turkey firmly in the Islamic Middle East rather than secular Europe. Then President Ahmet Necdet Sezer reacted to such alleged American plans by stating that "Turkey is neither an Islamic republic, nor an example ofmoderate Islam.

As previously mentioned, similar negative dynamics are in play on the Kurdish front. The majority of Turks also believe. When you have a domestic public opinion that is so. In that sense. Such focus often comes at the expense of the most powerful force driving Turkish foreign policy: nationalism and selfinterest. Such nationalism is driven by a perception that Turkey'sself-interests are not necessarily aligned with the interests of the West.

After all, both the Turkish military's Kemalismand the AKP neo-Ottomanism - the ideal of regional influence - share a similar vision of Turkish independence and nationalism. If current trends continue, Washington might witness the emergence in Turkey of not necessarily an Islamist foreign policy but a much more nationalist. A Gaullist Turkey may in the long run decide to no longer pursue an elusive ED membership. It may even question its military alliance with the United States. Burdened by a sense that it never gets the respect it deserves, Turkey may increasingly act on its own in search of "full independence, full sovereignty" strategic leverage and, most importantly, "Turkish glory and grandeur:' As France did under Charles de Ganlle in the s, Turkey may opt for its own "force de frappe" - a nuclear deterrent - and its own "Realpolitik" with countries such as China, India, and Russia.

It could even contemplate leaving, as France under de Ganlle did, the military structure of NATO, while maintaining its political membership in the organization. To understand Turkish Gaullism one needs to look at Turkey'simpressive economic performance. Today's Turkey offers a considerably different picture than Turkey in the s.

During the "lost decade" of the s, the Turkish economy was plagued by recessions, an average inflation rate of 70 percent, structural budget deficits, chronic financial crisis and constant political instability. In addition to such dismal economic performance, the fight against the PKK, had caused 30, deaths during that decade alone. Turkey managed to surprise most, analysts with its remarkable economic recovery and political stability in the last 10 years.

Shortly after the lost decade culminated with the worse financial crisis in Turkish history in early , Turkey began structural economic reforms and cleaned up its financial and banking system under the stewardship of Finance Minister Kemal Dervis. Economic and political reforms continued after the AKP came to power in In the last 8 years, the Turkish economy managed to grow by an average of 6. C 16 I Such economic performance. The AKp, under the Europe. But Turks are already charismatic and mercurial leadership of Prime Minister Erdogan personifies this looking for economic and sense ofTurkish "hubris:' Much has been strategic opportunities in Russia, said about the Islamist character of the India, China and, of course, the AKP and the "Islamic shift" in Turkish Middle East and Africa foreign policy.

Yet, one should not forget that Turkey's newfound sense of confidence and grandeur is taking place in a context where most Turks feel they are not getting the respect they deserve from the West, particularly from Europe and the United States. Should the West pay attention to Turkish Gaullism? The answer is yes. The recent referendum results on Turkish constitutional reforms clearly show that the AKP is doing well Barring aside a sudden change in the AKP's policies or a new pro-Western sentiment within the CHP under its newly elected leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Turkish Gaullism will increasingly define Ankara's foreign policy.

In the past, Americans and Europeans would often ask whether Turkey had any realistic geopolitical alternatives and complacently reassure themselves that it did not. But today such alternatives are starting to look more realistic to many Turks.. The rise of Turkish Ganllism need not come fully at the expense of America and Europe. But Turks are already looking for economic and strategic opportunities in Russia, India, China and, of course, the Middle East and Africa. If the strategic relationship between Ankara and Washington continues to erode and prospects for joining the EU continue to recede, Turkey will certainly go its own way.

Americans and Europeans who do not take the risk of such a development seriously underestimate the degree of resentment of the West that has been buIlding up in the country. It is high time for analysts to pay more attention to what unites the secularist and Islamists camps in Turkey: Turkish nationalism.

Gaullism may be the real future for Turkey in the 21st century. Endnotes 1. President Barack Obama visited Turkey in April During his visit he used the expression "model partnership" to define US-Turkey relations. Both sides have emphasized the importance of Turkish-American relations and suggested that a redefinition of relations after the Bush presidency was necessary.

Kurdish Question: Winners and Losers

However, it seems that there is no agreement on what "model partnership" is or will be. Some-analysts and even politicians have argued that the Flotilla Crisis and Turkey's "No" vote at the UN Security Council put an early end to "model partnership;' which is now only a bygone hope. October 26, Fighting the Taliban in Kunar Province. Volume 1, Issue Understanding Terrorist Safe Havens. London; Praeger. Afghanistan's Embattled Warlord. Volume 7, Issue 8. April 17, Volume 10, Issue.

Volume 6, no. Fall September 25, The World's Worst Suicide Bombers? Volume 5, Issue July 19, London; Routledge. Fighting by Proxy. February July 28, November 2, August 13, Gauging the Impact of Taliban Suicide Bombing. May 24, A Tale of Two Afghanistans. June 28, Volume 5, Issue 4. December 7, October 21, Volume 7 Issue 3 April 7, The Turkish government's official response to this article via their embassy in Moscow. Volume 1 Issue 9 Jan 15, America's Secular Ally in the War on Terrorism.

Issue 5. Issue Jamestown Foundation. October 2, September 12, April 23, Volume 2 Issue 22 November 18, Publications in Edited Books:. New York; East European Monographs. Gillian Long. Toronto; Toronto University Press. Views of the World. Modern Middle East Source Book. Ben Fortna et. University of Michigan Press. Articles Published in Refereed Scholarly Journals:. Volume 64, no. October Journal of Ethnopolitics.

Evaluation of Ocular Surface Disease Associated with Glaucoma Patients

Johns Hopkins University. A Historical Re-interpretation. The Exile and Repatriation of the Crimean Tatars. Turkistan Newsletter. April A critical analysis of the Great Tatar emigration of ". Cahiers du Monde Russe. Journal of the Russian World. Russia's Most Wanted Man. Wednesday, August 2, Fall Encyclopedia Articles: "Crimean Tatars. John Esposito. Stefan Wolff. The Orthodox Christian Turks of Moldavia. Carl Skutsch. Chicago; Fitzroy Dearborn Publishers. A Nation Without a State. Edward Lazzerini. Academic International Press.

Robin Jarrett et al. This modification indicates adaptive change and does not take place due to circadian constraints. Such modification of normal singing times enables survival of avian populations in noisy environments. But it entails a higher energetic cost and altered competitive ability and resilience Gil et al. Another important example is urban traffic noise, which directly interferes with avian acoustics due to its low frequency Mockford and Marshall Serins Serinus serinus have been found to increase singing at both spatial and temporal scales under such noise exposure Diaz et al.

Adjustment is also evident in male blackbirds that attempt to adjust their dawn song timing to periods of lower noise in response to traffic. Consequently, they are bound to become active several hours before humans Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research European Robins Erithacus rubecula reduce acoustic interference by singing at night in areas of high diurnal noise Fuller et al. Robins in Britain have been found to avoid their dawn chorus at peak rush hour and instead shift to singing at night Francis et al.

Nocturnal singing by diurnal birds may minimise interference from ambient urban noise. However, this could increase the metabolic rate at the cost of sleep Fuller et al. Birds also change the frequency and amplitude of their songs in response to noise. Increasing the calling amplitude by the signaller under greater noise exposure is termed the Lombard effect Lombard Free-ranging male nightingales Luscinia megarhynchos sing louder territorial songs at noisier locations Brumm German nightingales have taken to singing more loudly 95 decibels , which can be harmful to human hearing Francis et al.

In urban song sparrows Melospiza melodia , a positive relationship has been found between the minimum frequency of male song and the amplitude of anthropogenic noise Wood and Yezerinac However, high-frequency sounds might not efficiently propagate and lead to decreased efficiency of the acoustic signal. Some birds might increase the amplitude of their calls. The extent of such increase depends upon body size as well as energy cost.

In this case, energy costs may reduce the benefit of vocal adjustment Patricelli and Blickley Singing under noisy situations may also take place at the expense of vigilance and hence may pose a greater risk of survival Diaz et al. Human development has been proceeding at a great pace. Consequently, there is likely to be greater acoustic interference with animal communication, which in turn can lead to important behavioural consequences Fuller et al.

Larger bird species emit lower-frequency signals. Therefore, larger birds are more vulnerable to noisy areas than smaller species which transmit higher frequency signals. Body size, vocal amplitude and frequency are important factors that determine tolerance Francis et al.

Smaller species that rely upon high-frequency transmissions could persist in noisy environments. In addition, these could also benefit from reduced predation risk in such areas. But this benefit entails costs to male—female communication, pairing success and reproductive success in the absence of predation Francis et al.

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Developing nestlings are sensitive to noise, but they could not move away from it they are confinement to their nests. They could suffer from immediate effects like suppression of growth and immune function Crino et al. Long-term impacts could lead to physiological, morphological and behavioural consequences. Such consequences could include lifelong and trans-generational effects on reproductive success and survival. In fact, exposure to even short periods of stress, such as noise, during development could lead to large-scale effects Crino et al.

This has been observed in nestlings of white-crowned sparrows Zonotrichia leucophrys that suffer from phenotypic effects under higher levels of traffic noise Crino et al. Birds could use various strategies to overcome the effects of noise. This could lead to evolutionary changes in signal characteristics or short-term adaptations Herrera-Montes and Aide Bird abundance, occurrence and species richness are reduced near roads in response to noise. The largest reductions occur where traffic levels are high Summers et al. Similar effects are also evident near airports.

A small percentage of species with sufficiently plastic behaviour to escape noise can thrive near airports. Even so, this diminishes the bird community and consequently the ecosystem is affected Gil et al. Diversity of bird communities is reduced by noise, especially in secondary lowland forest sites Francis et al. However, sometimes noise exerts a beneficial effect on smaller birds if it cannot be tolerated by egg-eating predators such as the Western Scrub Jay Aphelocoma californica which causes nest failure. However, this can also have significant ecological consequences, since Scrub Jays are important for pollination Francis et al.

On the other hand, noise indirectly increases pollination by hummingbirds Francis et al. An increase in artificial lighting has impacted heavily on natural light regimes and has led to several ecological consequences ranging from changes in animal behaviour to community composition. Potential impacts include extension of foraging time, sexual competition of diurnal and crepuscular animals into night, improvement in prey detection and predator avoidance capabilities, changes in the capacity to navigate and ability of pollinators to detect nectar sources.

Studies on these aspects are limited because the problem has only been recently recognised as an environmental issue Davies et al. The impacts of light can be subtle, and such effects have not received the required attention Poot et al. However, various characteristics of light have the potential to influence ecological and evolutionary processes Navara and Nelson ; van Langevelde et al.

The evolution of plants and animals has occurred on the basis of day—night cycle, and artificial light disrupts this cycle Cinzano et al. Light has in fact been an ecological issue for a long time, and the problem is likely to increase with developments in lighting technologies Gaston et al. There are a number of implications which need to be studied Gaston et al. The avian circadian rhythm which determines the time of mating, breeding, foraging and migration is dependent upon light Mahr et al.

Therefore, alterations in activity patterns take place under the influence of light Mahr et al. In other words, when natural day and night rhythms are affected by artificial light, natural behavioural patterns may be altered Mahr et al. Hence, artificial light can prepone or postpone bird migration because migration primarily depends upon cues available from properly timed seasonal schedules.

Consequently, birds can miss optimal conditions for nesting, foraging and other behaviours International Dark Sky Association. The importance of light on behaviour is demonstrated by the fact that Greater Flamingos Phoenicopterus roseus and Peahens Pavo cristatus exhibit greater vigilance behaviour at night under lower light levels Yorzinski et al. In some birds, foraging is extended upon exposure to artificial light. Mockingbirds Minimus sp.

European blackbirds continue foraging longer into the evening and begin their mornings earlier when exposed to artificial night lighting. Thus, light can have a substantial impact on the fitness of birds by changing their behaviour Yorzinski et al. Light exerts an important influence on avian breeding behaviour. It leads to a number of consequences which are yet to be studied Kempenaers et al. Birds have been found to prepone breeding under the influence of longer day length Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission. This phenomenon has been reported in urban blackbirds in which light can prepone breeding by almost a month.

Another bird in which reproductive behaviour is affected by artificial light is the Blue Tit Cyanistes caeruleus Mahr et al. In this case, males near light sources at forest edges have been found to be more successful in attracting additional mates. In other words, these often have offspring with females other than their primary social partners Kempenaers et al. Thus, nocturnal light could influence avian strategies for choosing partners, as males and females may have separate preferences for light Mahr et al. The overall effects of night lighting on breeding birds are expected to be more magnified with increases in spring temperatures due to global warming Kempenaers et al.

The effects of night light could be intensified by traffic noise. Such composite consequences are also well reflected in the behavioural patterns and natural cycles of city blackbirds Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research This is a relevant problem of modern times because road networks and traffic volumes are projected to increase worldwide.

Noise and artificial light are important effects of roads that can also act synergistically with other effects to cause greater ecological impacts Kociolek et al. However, there are several anthropogenic factors that determine the impact of artificial night lighting on natural rhythms. The impacts on fitness of such changes in seasonal timing of behaviour are also not completely understood Da Silva et al.

Artificial light acts as a strong false orientation cue that can trap birds Verheijen Nocturnal migrants are the most vulnerable to this issue Gauthreaux and Belser ; Watson et al. Visual pigments of migratory birds are bleached by artificial light. Consequently, they can lose sight of the horizon, which makes them circle within a cone of light. This can result in exhaustion or collision with the light source Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission.

Artificial light can also cause the deviation of birds away from the correct migration routes towards harmful city landscapes at night. This is demonstrated by the fact that large numbers of birds die due to collisions with illuminated structures every year International Dark Sky Association.

For instance, about 98 million to one billion birds die following collisions with man-made structures across North America alone Chepesiuk Many nocturnally migrating birds also die or lose a large amount of energy upon encountering artificial light sources such as offshore platforms Poot et al. The reasons why birds are attracted towards artificially lit structures are not well understood Poot et al. In addition to triggering changes in migratory routes and causing birds to pass over illuminated sites, light can also lead to flight at lower altitudes, increased calling and resulting in birds spending more time over lit areas Watson et al.

Fledglings are attracted to artificial lights during their maiden night flights from the nest to the sea. As a result, they can become grounded and exposed to multiple threats. Disorientation also leads to inefficient feeding by seabirds in feeding grounds because they prey on bioluminescent sea animals under low light levels Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission. However, nocturnal lights can enable some shorebirds to utilise visual foraging at night instead of tactile foraging Rojas et al. On the whole, bird responses to all light conditions are strongest on nights devoid of moon and starlight Poot et al.

When the intensity of artificial light exceeds a threshold, earlier onset of dawn song occurs in some birds Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research In fact, under the influence of artificial light, many songbirds prepone singing around dawn, postpone singing around dusk and even engage in nocturnal singing Da Silva et al.

Earlier singing results in sleep loss in male birds and increases the risk of predation Kempenaers et al. Night lights can elongate the day length of diurnal songbirds and make them more prone to predators as they sing beyond their location Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission. The presence of street lights leads to earlier morning singing in the males of some bird species.

In the corresponding females, it induces earlier egg laying Kempenaers et al. The females of some birds are considered to engage in additional copulations with high-quality sires to increase the quality of their offspring. These could use early singing, due to light as a cue to decide the quality of male. Light could thus disrupt the link between the cue: early singing—male quality, so that females would end up having lower-quality males Kempenaers et al. Road lighting affects the density of nests for some species Longcore and Rich However, certain species tend to shift between periods of light absence and presence McClure et al.

In addition, disruption of melatonin production may occur in birds exposed to night light. Such an impairment of melatonin production could cause severe physiological consequences Gaston et al. Moreover, indirect effects are also apparent. For instance, many artificial lights act as fatal distraction for insects and result in their decline.

This is well evident in Germany where attraction towards artificial lights causes the death of a huge number of insects every summer. This in turn negatively impacts on birds that use insects as a food resource International Dark Sky Association; Eisenbeis Average world temperature has increased by 0.

The average rate of global annual temperature increase is 0. The average global land and ocean temperature for was 0. It surpassed the earlier record of by 0. This was the fifth time that a record high annual temperature was set in the twenty - first century along with , , , and Global Climate Report-Annual This increased heating is the result of higher atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and chlorofluorocarbons US EPA Global warming is in turn triggering remarkable changes in climate Sahu et al.

The atmospheric concentration of this greenhouse gas has increased drastically since the start of the industrial revolution World Meteorological Organization Website; British Geological Society Website. Carbon dioxide is released in huge quantities due to deforestation, fossil fuel combustion and cement production World Meteorological Organisation Website; British Geological Society Website. It is predicted that more frequent heat waves and extreme precipitation events will occur as a result, in addition to greater warming and acidification of the ocean IPCC Methane is produced in landfill sites as well as the agricultural and animal husbandry sectors World Meteorological Organisation Website; British Geological Society Website.

Nitrous oxide arises predominantly due to nitrification and denitrification in agricultural soils. This is a serious issue because a huge increase in cultivated land is expected in the near future Tilman et al. Chlorofluorocarbons regulated under the Montreal Protocol are synthetic compounds utilised mainly for refrigeration and air conditioning. Growth in industrialisation is directly related to the increase in emission of these greenhouse gases tenfold increase since the beginning of the twentieth century World Meteorological Organization Website.

Climate change is likely to increase the frequency of certain climatic extremes that can exert drastic impacts on biodiversity Jentsch et al. This is especially likely to occur if meteorological thresholds are surpassed and lead to population collapses Oliver et al. In fact, prominent environmental parameters of climate change such as temperature, solar radiation, humidity, cloud cover and precipitation have implications for biodiversity Bickford et al.

Consequently, biodiversity is already being impacted due to climate change, and many species are likely to suffer declines or even undergo extinction Foden et al. Impacts depend upon inherent sensitivity, adaptability, and the extent of exposure to climatic change Bird Life International In addition, climate change can also lead to more frequent wildfires Silvestrini et al. Among the most prominent biotic effects of global warming are poleward and altitudinal range shifts evident in some butterflies , changes in precipitation and consequently decreased water availability for animals, complex responses for migratory species evident in birds by the fact that Red Knot Calidris canutus are becoming smaller, with smaller bills, resulting in decreased survival rates in Africa as well as changes in phenology and community composition and abundance WWF Climate change can also synergise with land use changes and biological invasions to cause the extinction of many bird species Benning et al.

There is an immediate necessity to take initiatives to suitably protect wildlife from global warming, and combating climate change and its impacts has been included by UNEP as one of its sustainable development goals Goal 13 UNEP Climate change accelerates the extinction rates of birds Foden et al. In fact, — terrestrial birds are likely to be extinct by if the surface temperature rises by 3.

Birds that survive within narrow environmental ranges are likely to decline the most. Rising temperatures may also help invasive species to outcompete native species WWF Migratory, mountain, island, wetland, Arctic, Antarctic and sea birds are highly vulnerable to the problem WWF These species have shown sharp declines in population or a shrinking in geographic range Foden et al. Limitations imposed on species range by climatic, ecological and physiological effects of elevation are important determinants of extinction risk Sekercioglu et al.

Birds at risk due to habitat and range shrinkage occurring under the influence of global warming. If such changes occur, very few areas of habitat with a suitable climate would be left for certain species in Europe RSPB In addition, rises in sea-level threaten coastal ecosystems and their biota. Climate change in the Arctic tundra is likely to impact on waterbird breeding habitat Bird Life International Northward latitudinal and elevation shifts are evident in several North American bird species distributions due to climatic changes King and Finch It must be added that the constraints of area and resources at higher altitudes could trigger interspecific competition and threaten high elevation residents Jankowski et al.

Under some circumstances, migrant species might dominate their upland congeners and push them further upwards or lead to their extinction Jankowski et al. The shifting of birds to climatically suitable ranges could also be complicated by landscapes which are fragmented or damaged by anthropogenic activities. Island and mountain birds are most vulnerable as these are confined to small habitat patches WWF In addition, if climatic changes occur too rapidly for vegetation to respond or take place beyond potential vegetation ranges, then bird populations might be forced to move into unsuitable habitats.

As a result, they may suffer from reduced survival and reproduction Crick Climate change may also alter community composition by inducing variation in the rate at which species shift their range. Communities could change further due to shifting of constituent species along different trajectories Gillings et al. Future indirect climate change effects on birds include alteration of habitats due to rises in sea level, as well as changes in fire regimes, vegetation and land use WWF Climate change can also induce drought conditions that elevate the intensity and occurrence of wildfires, which could impact birds by destroying nests and modifying habitats.

This is already evident in parts of the western US King and Finch An important effect of climate change propagates through the prevalence of droughts. Open water, vegetation biomass and native over-story trees are important determinants of bird diversity along river reaches. All three factors are reduced when water flow in rivers decreases due to drought. As a result, key sensitive species are affected. In addition, blackbirds, robins, thrushes and starlings also face difficulty in reaching worms and insects in soil under dry conditions.

Moreover, as water bodies dry up, growth of vegetation is hampered. Consequently, the risk of predation increases for wading birds The Wildlife Trusts Website. Droughts can also lead to changes in salinity and thereby eliminate many insects such as brine flies Ephydridae sp. Insect populations can also decrease due to lower hatching rates under water scarcity Frost Dry periods have been linked with bird community changes as well as amphibian and reptilian losses Pounds et al. Protected areas help to counteract the effects of droughts by protecting ecosystem services such as water flow and water quality, and conserving habitats World Bank They also maintain ecosystem integrity and buffer local climate against drought Stolton et al.

Hence, the effects of drought are likely to be more pronounced in unprotected areas. In fact, climate change has resulted in complete and unprecedented avian reproduction failures WWF This is because breeding performance is dependent upon climate trends Crick Changes in climate affect avian metabolism and behaviour, including the ability to mate Crick Climate change can also alter display sites for singing birds and also lead to changes in optimal song choice, variance in mating success and predator—prey interactions Moller Breeding success can also be hampered due to the chilling and starvation of young birds under extreme conditions frozen spills and droughts occurring due to climate change Crick Drought due to climate change also reduces the breeding success of wading birds, as demonstrated in England during the spring of This could have serious implications because reduced breeding success for more than two consecutive years could threaten vulnerable wading birds such as Redshank Tringa totanus.

Such birds also cannot feed in hard, dry ground The Wildlife Trusts Website. In addition, temporal partitioning of the breeding period due to changes induced by climate can lead to destructive interspecific competition Ahola et al. Arrival of migratory birds at breeding and over-wintering grounds at the appropriate time is the primary determinant of reproductive success, survival and fitness Cotton This is because synchrony between offspring needs and food availability is crucial Visser et al.

Climate change exerts a negative impact on this aspect by extending growing seasons, changing flowering phenology and altering distribution patterns Cotton Increasing spring temperatures have altered vegetation phenology.

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Consequently, the timing of the food supply for young offspring is not synchronised with reproductive behaviour in some birds. This has led to reproductive failure in some birds such as the great tit in the UK Visser et al. Similar effects caused a breeding crash in seabirds in the North Sea around the UK in This occurred due to the shortage of food resources arising from warming ocean waters and shifts in species that affected the ocean food web WWF-India Many birds have advanced their timing of reproduction in response to climate change.

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  • Species that do not advance their breeding adequately become mismatched with the availability of food sources and suffer from reproduction failures. The greater the extent of this mismatch, the greater is likely to be the decline in populations Moller et al. However, climate change affects different species differently. This is evident from two groups of sea birds in Siberia, namely planktivorous auklets Aethia cristatella and Cyclorhynchus psittacula and piscivorous puffins Fratercula corniculata and Lunda cirrhata.

    The former feed on macro-zooplanktons that are favoured in cooler waters. The latter feed on fish that are favoured by warmer waters warmer water supports mesoplankton that are consumed by fish. Thus, changes in sea surface temperatures affect the reproductive success in these two groups differently Crick Birds can also exhibit individual responses.

    Pied flycatcher not only advances egg laying to prepone hatching, but also adjusts clutch size and initiation of incubation in response to climate change Visser et al. Warmer springs have led to increased egg and clutch sizes in this species in Germany and Finland Crick On the other hand, some species attempt to rear a second brood instead of advancing egg laying Visser et al.

    The fact that climate change can lead to increased incidences of some avian pathogens and parasites is exemplified by the spread of West Nile disease King and Finch Climate change is also likely to push avian malaria from the tropics and temperate areas towards the north.

    In fact, it has been estimated that by , the range of this disease will increase and threaten bird populations in currently unaffected areas Loiseau et al. Another example is in Hudson Bay, Canada, where mosquito numbers now peak earlier in the spring due to climate change. However, breeding seabirds have not changed their behaviour accordingly.

    Thus, a combination of heat and mosquitoes has led to greater egg losses and increased adult mortality Gaston et al. The effects of climate change are likely to be more severe in Hawaii, where the transmission of avian pox and malaria is affected by fluctuations in temperature and rainfall.